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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 28

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model