4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 35

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-J.Graham to ARI 15 for 20 yards (28-J.Bethel; 36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model