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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(:56) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for 10 yards (43-H.Reddick; 28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.43 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model