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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for 27 yards (43-H.Reddick).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model