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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 4-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model