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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(:37) 7-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.27 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model