Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(13:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 44 yards to BUF 28, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model