Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- BUF defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Jay Cutler (MIA) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
- QB edge to BUF: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.025 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) -0.006 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
BUF
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:20 TD BUF (10:20) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 84-N.O'Leary for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 0
- Q2 14:50 FG BUF (14:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 10 – MIA 0
- Q3 10:21 FG BUF (10:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – MIA 0
- Q3 07:10 TD BUF (7:10) 95-K.Williams and 72-R.Groy reported in as eligible. 95-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – MIA 0
- Q3 02:34 FG MIA (2:34) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. BUF 19 – MIA 3
- Q4 11:45 FG BUF (11:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 22 – MIA 3
- Q4 06:21 TD MIA (6:21) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales pass short middle to 14-J.Landry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-14-J.Landry, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on MIA-14-J.Landry, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on MIA-32-K.Drake, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on BUF-92-A.Washington, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on BUF-24-L.Johnson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on MIA-14-J.Landry, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on MIA-32-K.Drake, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on MIA-10-K.Stills, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 22 – MIA 9
- Q4 02:00 TD MIA (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – MIA 15
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 44 yards to BUF 28, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 29Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%
(7:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales pass short left to 11-D.Parker to BUF 22 for 7 yards (23-M.Hyde).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 94%
(4:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales pass incomplete short right to 85-A.Derby (24-L.Johnson).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(14:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(12:53) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 32, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to BUF 32 for no gain (21-J.Lucas). PENALTY on BUF-24-L.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 32.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 28%
(9:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. PENALTY on BUF-69-R.Ferguson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(6:09) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:16) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to MIA 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant to MIA 22 for 2 yards (30-L.Pitts).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 70%
(1:42) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 55 yards to BUF 14, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 28 for 14 yards (16-M.Haack). PENALTY on BUF-44-D.Lacey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 28.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 43%
(:22) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-29-S.Thomas.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 72%
(10:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 57%
(8:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on MIA-9-D.Fales, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at BUF 37.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%
(2:34) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 94%
(11:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 13 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:01) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant to MIA 32 for 10 yards (42-P.DiMarco; 50-R.Humber).