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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. PENALTY on BUF-69-R.Ferguson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model