Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

(6:09) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.97 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model