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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 55 yards to BUF 14, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 28 for 14 yards (16-M.Haack). PENALTY on BUF-44-D.Lacey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 28.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP