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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 42

Buffalo Bills 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-29-S.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP