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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 37

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on MIA-9-D.Fales, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at BUF 37.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model