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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 18

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 19

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model