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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 19 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(11:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.85 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP