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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 22 – Miami Dolphins 9

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant to MIA 32 for 10 yards (42-P.DiMarco; 50-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model