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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales pass short left to 11-D.Parker to BUF 22 for 7 yards (23-M.Hyde).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP