Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(11:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.63 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model