CAR @ ATL — 4th & Data

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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera

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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn

Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CAR

46.5%

ATL

53.5%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CAR offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
ATL offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.120 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23

–

ATL 24

Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CAR

Ladarius Gunter CB Questionable Illness

Kurt Coleman S Questionable Ankle

Trai Turner G Questionable Concussion

ATL

Levine Toilolo TE Out Knee

Alex Mack C Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10

–

ATL 22

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:39 TD ATL (10:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-V.Butler]. CAR 0 – ATL 6
Q2 00:55 TD CAR (:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – ATL 7
Q3 06:35 FG ATL (6:35) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 7 – ATL 10
Q3 03:49 FG ATL (3:49) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 7 – ATL 13
Q4 14:15 FG ATL (14:15) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 7 – ATL 16
Q4 10:38 FG CAR (10:38) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – ATL 16
Q4 06:43 FG ATL (6:43) 3-M.Bryant 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 10 – ATL 19
Q4 02:31 FG ATL (2:31) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 10 – ATL 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(9:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25.
Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(6:12) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to CAR 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.
Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(4:01) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%

(1:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to CAR 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.
Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(14:54) 5-M.Palardy punts 60 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 45 for 23 yards (53-B.Jacobs). PENALTY on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 22.
Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 79

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP

p(convert) 73%

(12:25) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 25, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Clay. PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 25.
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(11:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(9:24) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to CAR 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay to CAR 22 for 8 yards (42-D.Riley).
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 19

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 92%

(2:00) 1-C.Newton left guard to ATL 18 for 1 yard (42-D.Riley).
Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51%

(13:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to ATL 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 47 for 23 yards (19-R.Shepard). PENALTY on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 30.
Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

(6:35) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

(3:49) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55%

(2:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 28 for 9 yards (55-D.Mayo; 19-R.Shepard). ATL-19-A.Roberts was injured during the play.
Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 12

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

(14:15) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

(10:38) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 38

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 61%

(6:43) 3-M.Bryant 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(5:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to ATL 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 30 for 3 yards (54-S.Thompson).
Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 66 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(4:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to CAR 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay ran ob at CAR 25 for 7 yards (40-D.Coleman).
Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 15 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%

(2:31) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.