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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.00 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model