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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 12

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.05 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP