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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.55 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model