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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 38

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 3-M.Bryant 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model