4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 19

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to ATL 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 30 for 3 yards (54-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model