Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model