Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(4:01) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model