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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 47 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.91 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -2.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model