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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🥶 Cold Spread 8.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CIN
26.4%
BAL
73.6%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL defense: -0.191 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.045 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.002 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 17
–
BAL 25
Projected margin: BAL by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CIN

Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Shoulder
Vontaze Burfict LB Doubtful Shoulder
William Jackson CB Questionable Knee
Joe Mixon RB Questionable Ankle

BAL

Jeremy Maclin WR Doubtful Knee
Austin Howard T Questionable Knee
Mike Wallace WR Questionable Knee
Brandon Williams DT Questionable Back
Jermaine Eluemunor G Questionable Shoulder
Patrick Ricard DT Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 31
–
BAL 27

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:59 TD CIN (10:59) 66-T.Hopkins reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 81-T.Kroft for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 11:18 FG BAL (11:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 7 – BAL 3
  • Q2 04:20 TD CIN (4:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 81-T.Kroft for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:26 FG CIN (:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:08 TD BAL (:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 10-C.Moore for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 17 – BAL 9
  • Q3 10:36 TD CIN (10:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 10-C.Moore INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Dennard at CIN 11. 21-D.Dennard for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flacco's first interception in 134 attempts. CIN 23 – BAL 10
  • Q3 06:28 TD BAL (6:28) 34-A.Collins left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Collins runs left and then reverses field to score touchdown. CIN 24 – BAL 16
  • Q4 13:12 FG BAL (13:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 24 – BAL 20
  • Q4 08:52 TD BAL (8:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 17-M.Wallace for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 24 – BAL 26
  • Q4 00:53 TD CIN (:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – BAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 24%

    (9:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:47) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 35 for 6 yards.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 22 for 10 yards (38-S.Jean-Baptiste).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:26) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to BAL 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 32 for 9 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:46) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 26 for 4 yards (36-C.Clark). PENALTY on CIN-52-B.Bell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 26.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:21) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 34, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:17) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:17) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 47 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 18%

    (12:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 76%

    (11:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:21) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BAL 31, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 28 for 10 yards (58-S.Johnson).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:32) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 23 for 1 yard (88-V.Mayle).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 92%

    (6:28) 34-A.Collins left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Collins runs left and then reverses field to score touchdown.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:14) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 22 for 2 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (13:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:17) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 40 for 18 yards (23-B.Hill). PENALTY on CIN-23-B.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 40.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:45) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 29 for 4 yards. PENALTY on BAL-88-V.Mayle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 25.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 20%

    (2:51) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-D.Dennard MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CIN 10.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 24%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 14 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 82-B.Watson to BAL 36 for 13 yards (57-V.Rey).