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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model