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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.70 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model