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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 28 for 10 yards (58-S.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.58 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model