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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 14

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.64 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model