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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 34-A.Collins left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Collins runs left and then reverses field to score touchdown.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model