4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(13:12) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT +0.93 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model