Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 29 for 4 yards. PENALTY on BAL-88-V.Mayle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model