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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model