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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 82-B.Watson to BAL 36 for 13 yards (57-V.Rey).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.23 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -2.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP