4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 26 for 4 yards (36-C.Clark). PENALTY on CIN-52-B.Bell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 26.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model