4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 75

Detroit Lions 3 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to GB 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Davis to GB 42 for 18 yards (45-Ch.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model