4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

GB
31.2%
DET
68.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Brett Hundley (GB): -0.199 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
DET 25
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

GB

Davante Adams WR Out Concussion
Jahri Evans G Out Knee
Aaron Jones RB Out Knee
Jordy Nelson WR Out Shoulder
Nick Perry LB Out Ankle
Richard Rodgers TE Out Shoulder
Ulrick John T Questionable Back
Geronimo Allison WR Questionable Illness
Clay Matthews LB Questionable Hamstring
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Knee

DET

Nevin Lawson CB Out Concussion
Anthony Zettel DE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 11
–
DET 35

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:04 FG GB (5:04) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel. GB 3 – DET 0
  • Q1 03:06 FG DET (3:06) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 07:35 TD DET (7:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-K.Golladay for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – DET 9
  • Q2 02:24 TD DET (2:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones Jr. for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – DET 16
  • Q2 00:35 FG DET (:35) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 3 – DET 20
  • Q3 01:50 TD DET (1:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-31-D.House was injured during the play. GB 3 – DET 26
  • Q4 11:35 TD GB (11:35) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – DET 27
  • Q4 07:23 TD DET (7:23) (Shotgun) 21-A.Abdullah left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 11 – DET 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:05) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to GB 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (5:04) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (3:06) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:32) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to GB 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Davis to GB 42 for 18 yards (45-Ch.Washington).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 58%

    (11:30) 8-J.Vogel punts 29 yards to DET 10, Center-61-B.Goode. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 12. 39-J.Agnew to DET 12 for no gain (11-T.Davis).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:13) 8-J.Vogel punts 48 yards to 50, Center-61-B.Goode. 39-J.Agnew to GB 11 for 39 yards (25-M.Evans). PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 30.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 43%

    (3:12) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to GB 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 44-D.Brown MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-58-P.Worrilow at GB 14. 58-P.Worrilow to GB 14 for no gain (25-M.Evans).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (:35) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:41) 8-J.Vogel punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 45%

    (7:15) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:44) 8-J.Vogel punts 34 yards to GB 49, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (4:04) 6-S.Martin punts 29 yards to GB 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:59) 8-J.Vogel punts 55 yards to DET 29, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:26) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to GB 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 36 for 28 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 29%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Callahan pass short right to 32-D.Mays to GB 47 for -2 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin) [98-J.Ledbetter].