Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 98

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 8-J.Vogel punts 48 yards to 50, Center-61-B.Goode. 39-J.Agnew to GB 11 for 39 yards (25-M.Evans). PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 30.

The Three Options

GO -4.29 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.64 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 98, worth -6.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model