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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 8-J.Vogel punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model