Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 20

(1:59) 8-J.Vogel punts 55 yards to DET 29, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.23 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model