Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 85

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(9:05) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to GB 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model