4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 11 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Callahan pass short right to 32-D.Mays to GB 47 for -2 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin) [98-J.Ledbetter].

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.11 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP