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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model