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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 10

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model