Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

(13:49) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model