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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

HOU
33.3%
IND
66.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to IND: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.111 vs T.J. Yates (HOU) -0.210 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 18
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

HOU

Jeff Allen G Out Concussion
DeAndre Hopkins WR Out Calf
Jordan Todman RB Out Shoulder
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Concussion
LaTroy Lewis LB Questionable Shoulder

IND

Denzelle Good T Out Knee
Johnathan Hankins DT Out Ankle
Jason Vander Laan TE Out Concussion
Donte Moncrief WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 13
–
IND 22

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:20 FG HOU (8:20) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – IND 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD IND (15:00) (Run formation) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-56-B.Cushing, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 3 – IND 6
  • Q2 07:01 TD HOU (7:01) (Run formation) 77-D.Quessenberry and 61-K.Fuller reported in as eligible. 28-A.Blue up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – IND 7
  • Q2 01:49 FG HOU (1:49) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 13 – IND 7
  • Q3 06:57 TD IND (6:57) (Run formation) 61-A.Fabiano and 65-T.Burwell reported in as eligible. 25-M.Mack right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – IND 13
  • Q4 12:12 SAF IND (12:12) 77-D.Quessenberry and 61-K.Fuller reported in as eligible. 2-T.Yates sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (91-H.Ridgeway). HOU 13 – IND 16
  • Q4 08:52 FG IND (8:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. HOU 13 – IND 19
  • Q4 00:35 FG IND (:35) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. HOU 13 – IND 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:49) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (8:20) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:33) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-B.Miller to HOU 14 for -3 yards (59-J.George).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

    (1:49) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:23) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:38) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to IND 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to IND 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 27 for 14 yards (39-I.Campbell; 41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:49) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:13) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to IND 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 19 for 9 yards (40-M.Williams).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:19) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 65%

    (8:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:53) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to IND 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at IND 47 for 30 yards (39-I.Campbell).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (:35) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.