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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-B.Miller to HOU 14 for -3 yards (59-J.George).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model